Kunio Kaiho, a climatologist at the University of Tohoku in Japan, examined the events of mass extinction in the past in order to predict the risks of similar events in the future, and a researcher found that the relationship between the stability of the Earth's average surface temperature and biodiversity on the planet was linear.
In the last 540 million years, five events of mass extinction have already been recorded on Earth — periods when the planet lost most of its species in a relatively short geological period of time.
This is much higher than previous projections, which suggest that a temperature increase of 5.2 °C to pre-industrial levels would result in a large mass extinction of marine organisms comparable to the previous five.
The United Nations estimates that the average temperature on Earth is now about 1.1°C above pre-industrial level. With the current level of emissions, experts expect to rise to 4.4°C by the end of this century.
Global warming at 9°C will not occur at anthropoce at least until 2500, even in the worst-case scenario.
The scientist does not deny that climate change is already affecting species conservation, but does not expect it to be as large as the global events of the past, for example, the largest mass extinction on Earth that occurred some 250 million years ago took the lives of 95 percent of the species that existed at that time.
Research suggests that species extinction can be affected not only by absolute temperature changes, but also by their speed. The last mass extinction lasted some 60,000 years, and the climate is now changing faster because of man-made effects. Perhaps during the sixth extinction, more species will die not because the scale of warming is so large, but because of the rapidity of changes that many species will not be able to adapt to.