Aerospace Corporation, a specialized debris tracking company, reported on Twitter that the projected time of impact on Earth of the first stage of the Changzhen-5B launch vehicle was on July 31, at 14:07 msk plus/minus 24 hours. The drop in the rocket stage would occur in 88% of the Earth's population. Fortunately, the area is mostly represented by the ocean, so the threat to life and health of the population is minimal.
In the coming days, the first stage of the Changjeng-5B launch vehicle will fall into Earth, which had previously launched the Wensian laboratory module for the Chinese orbital station. A similar situation occurred just over a year ago, when the same rocket launched the central space station module. Moreover, this story will be repeated twice, in October this year, during the process of placing the second laboratory module in orbit and the following year, when the Chinese space telescope will be launched into orbit as a separate orbit station instrument.
Experts are not yet able to calculate the exact time and location of the fall of the first stage of Changjeng-5B. The dynamics of the atmosphere and the profile of the debris do not make a precise prediction, but as this event approaches, accuracy will increase many times.
Hello #spaceTwitter.We're dealing with the reentry of the CZ-5B Rocket Body. Our latest production is: \\31 Jules 202211:07 UTC ± 24 hours Recentry will be on the ground of the global trades sound here. It's to be known to determine debris footprint. Updates: https://t.co/SxrMtcJnj0 pic.twitter.com/R2Otdb1zD
The expected weight of the step or what is left of it may be 23 tonnes and the dimensions may be as large as 54 m.
The fall will take place between 41 degrees north and 41 degrees south, which includes New York, Madrid and Beijing, as well as land far south of Chile and Wellington in New Zealand.
China understands the potential danger of uncontrolled de-orbiting of rocket and satellite parts. To prevent this, for example, upper-air braking technologies using sail-type structures are being tested. Time will come and this "Russian roulette" will no longer have to be played. At least this is something to be believed in. Otherwise, a significant percentage of the probability of a fatal space debris incident is projected for the end of the decade, with a probability of up to 10%, as Canadian experts believe.